🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and precinct by precinct. Lange, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and has become a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious while missing the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange possesses a talent for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and most voters favored the independent, who ran as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your night?

I had to do that because they were adding approximately 200K votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and his lead dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world where election day turned out somewhat badly for him, in which the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the earlier contest. However Mamdani gained half a million supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Coalition Building

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a genuine phenomenon, limited to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously went for the progressive now. But I wouldn’t say he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could go over two million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that sufficed to win.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over half. He’s at just over 50% but remain probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. Thus I don’t think certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he does because afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

Republican Collapse

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really was unexpected. The independent held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these conservatives on the island who had a high participation. I believe occurred significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it before the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents all went for the independent. So there was a little resistance. But overall, largely the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were major surprises on this one, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what the city means politically? Will progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a few areas in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be more of that – candidates will emerge from these areas to be promoted to higher office.

But I believe that every city in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.