A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
