‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.

As military actions on Iran disrupt energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, supplies of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, close earlier and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as concerns over fuel supplies spread. Businesses appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in commercial eateries.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply cannot be found," says a official of the a major restaurant body.

Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being noticed across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the south. People are adopting coal and wood and electric cookers to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks dry up. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their fuel reserves have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a business operator in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are skipping midday meals and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that closures are varying as supplies come and go. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers observe a surge in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Government Stance

Yet, the officials insists there is adequate supply.

India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and authorities say stocks are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities affect energy markets.

Approximately six out of ten of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Commercial stock is being prioritised for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "fair and transparent".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been sparked by misinformation. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about under three days," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of scooters outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to reports from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be overstated.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around 50% of its petroleum shipments - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the gap could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, increased Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective deficit from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a ready fallback," an analyst noted.

Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness

The real vulnerability is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can adjust processes to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country significantly leaning on imports.

In short: "Crude supply risk can be somewhat alleviated through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. Kitchen fuel stocks is the real variable to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just limited availability but erratic supply chains - and the usual problem of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges price gouging.

"Suppliers are misusing the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in kitchens across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next cylinder.